Over the summer the European Joint Research Centre issued a report titled “Modelling environmental and climate ambition in the agricultural sector with the CAPRI model - Exploring the potential effects of selected Farm to Fork and Biodiversity strategies targets in the framework of the 2030 Climate targets and the post 2020 Common Agricultural Policy”.

The report uses the CAPRI model, one of the main models used by the European Commission for agricultural policy analysis and focuses on the four most salient quantitative targets included in the Farm to Fork and Biodiversity Strategies, and already reflected in the recommendations of the Commission to the Member States on their CAP Strategic Plans. The analysis includes: a reduction of the risk and use of pesticides, a reduction of nutrient surplus, an increase of area under organic farming, and an increase of area for high-diversity landscape features.

The impacts are modelled under three scenarios. One is a status quo scenario assuming no change in the CAP compared to its implementation during 2014-2020. The other two scenarios include a potential implementation of the CAP post 2020 legal proposal targeting these objectives, both with and without the targeted use of Next Generation EU funding.

The JRC underlines that the report “does not constitute an impact assessment of the strategies as such” as not all the measures foreseen by the F2F and BDS are taken into account (e.g. food waste reduction targets, dietary shifts, organic action plan) and it focusses on the supply side.

The full report can be accessed here: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC121368   

The European farming and agri-food community has for long called for a comprehensive impact assessment of the Farm to Fork and Biodiversity strategies, see https://cema-agri.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=804&catid=17&Itemid=213